Can greater uncertainty hasten investment?

This paper examines irreversible investment in a project with uncertain returns, when there is an advantage to being the first to invest and externalities to investing when others also do so. We show that in a duopoly, greater uncertainty can actually hasten rather than delay investment, contrary to the usual outcome, due its effect on the equilibrium of the timing game between the players. In the presence of positive externalities, greater uncertainty can raise the leader's value more than the follower's; pre-emption then entails that the leader must act sooner. A switch in the pattern of equilibrium investment as uncertainty increases is also possible, which may hasten investment. These findings reinforce the importance of extending real options analysis to include strategic interactions and externalities between players

Graduating live and on line: the multimedia webcast of the Open Universitys worldwide virtual degree ceremony

As the foremost international open learning institution, the UK Open University has now webcast two live and on-line degree ceremonies. Most higher education establishments routinely videotape degree presentations and many now broadcast these videos as ways of including remote family and friends who could not attend the physical event. In contrast, the UKOU has presented live ceremonies at which the graduands themselves, plus guests, family and friends were all remote and online! The first worldwide virtual degree ceremony took place at 15:00 GMT/UT on March 31st 2000. This ceremony was the first in the Open University’s calendar for 2000, and therefore the first formal ceremony of this leading open learning institution in the new millennium. The second online ceremony took place on 18th April 2001, and further ceremonies are planned as part of the routine of open learning

Broadband: a solution to rural e-learning?

Rural and remote learners are disadvantaged even with online provision due to poor connections. Broadband offers a potential solution. This paper looks at the initial results of a project to install broadband services in the Western Isles of Scotland. It focuses on the educational potential of broadband and the design implications for online courses. It also considers more informal kinds of learning that broadband facilitates in rural areas

Networks, Options and Preemption

This paper examines the irreversible adoption of a technology whose returns are uncertain, when there is an advantage to being the first adopter, but a network advantage to adopting when others also adopt. There are two main results. First, conditional on adoption being sequential, the follower adopts at the incorrect point, compared with the cooperative solution. The leader adopts at the cooperative point when there is no preemption, and too early if there is preemption. Secondly, there is insufficient simultaneous adoption in equilibrium. The paper examines how these inefficiencies vary as the degree of uncertainty and network effects change. Interesting interactions between the various factors are found. For example, the analysis raises the interesting possibility that the introduction of a small amount of uncertainty can cause the first mover to adopt the technology earlier.

The existence and uniqueness of monotone pure strategy equilibrium in Bayesian games

This paper provides a sufficient condition for existence and uniqueness of equilibrium, which is in monotone pure strategies, in games of incomplete information. First, we show that if each player’s incremental ex post payoff is uniformly increasing in its own action and type, and its type is sufficiently uninformative of the types of its opponents (independence), then its expected payoff satisfies a strict single crossing property in its own action and type, for any strategy profile played by its opponents. This ensures that a player’s best response to any strategy profile is a monotone pure strategy. Secondly, we show that if, in addition, there is sufficient heterogeneity of the conditional density of types, then the best response correspondence is a contraction mapping. This ensures equilibrium existence and uniqueness. In contrast to existing results, our uniqueness result does not rely on strategic complementarities; this allows for a wider range of applications. Keywords; incomplete information, heterogeneity, existence, unique pure strategy equilibrium

Independence, Heterogeneity and Uniqueness in Interaction Games

This paper shows that incomplete information and sufficient heterogeneity of players can ensure uniqueness in interaction games. In contrast to recent work on uniqueness in interaction games, we do not require strategic complementarity. There are two parts to the argument. First, if a player’s signal is sufficiently uninformative of the signals of its opponents (in the sense of the Fisher information of the signal), then the player’s best response to any strategy profile of its opponents is non-decreasing in its signal. Secondly, a contraction mapping argument shows that sufficient heterogeneity ensures that equilibrium is unique.Co-ordination, Interaction games, Heterogeneity, Unique equilibrium

The Failing Firm Defence: Merger Policy and Entry

This paper considers the `failing firm defence'. Under this principle, found in most antitrust jurisdictions, a merger that would otherwise be blocked due to its adverse effect on competition is permitted when the firm to be acquired is a failing firm, and an alternative, less detrimental merger is unavailable. Competition authorities have shown considerable reluctance to accept the failing firm defence, and it has been successfully used in just a handful of cases. The paper considers the defence in a dynamic setting with uncertainty. A firm entering a market also considers its ease of exit, foreseeing that it may later wish to leave should market conditions deteriorate. By facilitating exit in times of financial distress, the failing firm defence may encourage entry sufficiently that welfare is increased overall. This view of the defence has several implications relevant to a number of merger cases. The conditions under which greater leniency is welfare-improving are examined.merger policy, failing firm defence, entry, exit

Independence and heterogeneity in games of incomplete information

This paper provides a sufficient condition for existence and uniqueness of equilibrium, which is in monotone pure strategies, in games of incomplete information. First, we show that if each player’s incremental ex post payoff is uniformly increasing in its own action and type, and its type is sufficiently uninformative of the types of its opponents (independence), then its expected payoff satisfies a strict single crossing property in its own action and type, for any strategy profile played by its opponents. This ensures that a player’s best response to any strategy profile is a monotone pure strategy. Secondly, we show that if, in addition, there is sufficient heterogeneity of the conditional density of types, then the best response correspondence is a contraction mapping. This ensures equilibrium existence and uniqueness. In contrast to existing results, our uniqueness result does not rely on strategic complementarities; this allows for a wider range of applications. <br><br> Keywords; incomplete information, heterogeneity, existence, unique pure strategy equilibrium <br><br> JEL classification: C72; D82